Hot topics

Slovenia Business Week no. 29: Think-Tank Believes Fast Growth to End in 2013

The government Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) said Slovenia economy stands to grow at between 4% and 5% until the current EU budget period runs out in 2013, while two different scenarios are possible between 2013 and 2030

The government Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) said on Wednesday, 8 August Slovenia economy stands to grow at between 4% and 5% until the current EU budget period runs out in 2013, while two different scenarios are possible between 2013 and 2030.

According to IMAD, Slovenia's growth until 2013 will be fuelled by positive effects of EU membership and by the money coming in from EU's structural funds. The growth rate will then gradually decrease and edge closer to that of developed European countries.

For the period after 2013, the think-tank forecasts two scenarios. According to the more favourable one, the average annual real GDP growth of 4.4% until 2013 would decrease to 3.5% until 2020 and to 3% until 2030, according to a strategy paper presented by IMAD.

The scenario also forecasts that the country fully implements the government's resolution on national development projects between 2007-2023.

The high average growth under the first scenario will be made possible by the positive effects of the expansion of the EU's market and the expected large investments into economic and social infrastructure, entrepreneurship and R&D.

This scenario also sees several Slovenian companies becoming multinational corporations, moving production to countries outside of the EU with lower labour costs, while development, marketing and design is kept in Slovenia.

The country's transport companies would meanwhile take good use of the Slovenia's position on the crossroads of the 5th and 10th pan-European transport routes.

The second scenario meanwhile envisages an increase of protectionism in the country, and consequentially a drop in the economic growth to 2% between 2013 and 2020 and to 1% by 2030.

While Slovenia's economic would continue to grow over the surveyed period, its GDP would be some 35% lower by 2030 compared to the first scenario.

The second scenario sees proactive domestic development and economic policies trying to mitigate the shocks. However, the lack of business opportunities abroad would make it difficult for the country to maintain balanced public finances and the development resolution would not be carried out in full.

Source: Slovenian Press Agency STA

Author: STA, Slovenian National Press Agency